今年方管市場寬幅震蕩中艱難揚(yáng)升高水平增長

2019年中國方管市場行情具有兩大特點(diǎn)：一是寬幅震蕩；二是震蕩揚(yáng)升，全年平均價格水平略高于上年。從今年以來的市場運(yùn)行情況來 看，上述特點(diǎn)得到了不同程度驗(yàn)證。今年春節(jié)過后，中國方管市場行情先是“開門紅”，普遍出現(xiàn)較大幅度上漲，之后因?yàn)榉焦墚a(chǎn)量超預(yù)期釋放，壓迫價格回調(diào)，但 即便如此，價格環(huán)比水平依然是震蕩揚(yáng)升態(tài)勢。據(jù)蘭格鋼鐵網(wǎng)市場監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)，今年3月22日，全國方管綜合價格指數(shù)為152.8，比2018年11月28日上 升4.5%。其中長材價格指數(shù)為165.5，上升3.6%；板材價格指數(shù)為139.9，上升5.9%。同期螺紋鋼主力合約收盤價格上漲3.4%。
In 2019, there are two main characteristics of China's market management: one is wide shocks; the other is rising shocks, with the annual average price level slightly higher than the previous year. From the market operation situation since this year, the above characteristics have been verified to varying degrees. After this year's Spring Festival, the market of China's Fangguan has been "red-blooded", with a relatively large increase in the market. After that, because Fangguan's output exceeded expectations, it suppressed price callback, but even so, the price ring ratio is still volatile and rising. According to the market monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Network, on March 22 this year, the national comprehensive price index of square management was 152.8, up 4.5% from November 28, 2018. Among them, the long wood price index was 165.5, up 3.6%, and the plate price index was 139.9, up 5.9%. Thread steel main contracts closed 3.4% higher in the same period. 預(yù)計今后方管市場行情還有可能出現(xiàn)回調(diào)，但價格環(huán)比走向的總體趨勢還是震蕩向上。2019年內(nèi)中國方管市場行情所以呈現(xiàn)震蕩揚(yáng)升態(tài)勢，主要是受到兩大因素的支撐：
It is expected that there will be a pullback in the future market, but the overall trend of price ring ratio is still upward shocks. In 2019, China's market has been in a turbulent and upward trend, which is mainly supported by two factors:

一是消費(fèi)需求繼續(xù)旺盛。因 為今年決策部門化解經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力的主要手段，就是增強(qiáng)固定資產(chǎn)投資，尤其是增強(qiáng)補(bǔ)短板的基礎(chǔ)施設(shè)投資。有關(guān)部門在密集批復(fù)投資項(xiàng)目的同時，還在建設(shè)資金方 面予以保障。致使今年開工與施工力度明顯強(qiáng)于上年，從而增加建筑用方管需求，這一點(diǎn)已經(jīng)成為市場共識，并且被一些統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)所證實(shí)。比如今年前2月，全國新 開工項(xiàng)目計劃總投資同比增長4.9%，比去年同期增速提高了近23個百分點(diǎn)(去年為負(fù)增長17.7%)。根據(jù)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)測算，2019年1-2月，全國粗鋼 表觀消費(fèi)量同比增長11.2%，比去年同期增幅又提高了1.5個百分點(diǎn)。預(yù)計今年一季度全國粗鋼表觀消費(fèi)量同比增速達(dá)到或接近兩位數(shù)。一季度中國粗鋼消費(fèi) 開局良好，亦表明全年表觀需求狀況應(yīng)該不錯，繼續(xù)較高水平增長。
First, consumer demand continues to be strong. Because this year, the main means for policy-making departments to relieve the downward pressure of the economy is to increase investment in fixed assets, especially in infrastructure construction. While approving investment projects intensively, relevant departments also guarantee construction funds. As a result, this year's construction and construction efforts are significantly stronger than the previous year, thus increasing the demand for construction management, which has become a consensus in the market, and has been confirmed by some statistical data. For example, in the first two months of this year, the total investment in new construction projects increased by 4.9% year-on-year, nearly 23 percentage points higher than the same period last year (17.7% negative growth last year). According to statistical data, the apparent consumption of crude steel in China increased by 11.2% from January to February 2019, which was 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. It is expected that the apparent consumption of crude steel in the first quarter of this year will reach or close to double digits year on year. China's crude steel consumption started well in the first quarter, indicating that the year-round apparent demand situation should be good and continue to grow at a higher level.

在 國內(nèi)需求增加的同時，出口需求亦在好轉(zhuǎn)。海關(guān)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年1-2月全國出口方管同比增長12.9%。如果中美貿(mào)易談判能夠取得積極成果，勢必很大程 度改善中國方管出口外部環(huán)境。另一方面，今年大規(guī)模降低稅費(fèi)，也會成為促進(jìn)方管出口的有利因素。因?yàn)榻档投愘M(fèi)可以降低方管生產(chǎn)與物流成本，進(jìn)而降低出口鋼 材的國內(nèi)采購成本，增強(qiáng)國際市場競爭力。受到其推動，預(yù)計全年粗鋼出口量(方管出口量折算，下同)將會轉(zhuǎn)降為升。
While domestic demand is increasing, export demand is also improving. Customs statistics show that from January to February this year, the national export control increased by 12.9% compared with the same period last year. If the Sino-US trade negotiations can achieve positive results, it is bound to greatly improve the external environment of China's export control. On the other hand, this year's large-scale reduction of taxes and fees will also be a favorable factor for promoting export under local control. Because reducing taxes and fees can reduce the cost of square management production and logistics, and then reduce the cost of domestic procurement of export steel, and enhance the competitiveness of the international market. Driven by this, it is expected that the annual crude steel export volume (square pipe export volume conversion, the same below) will be reduced to increase.

二是生產(chǎn)成本有所增加。從 市場監(jiān)測情況來看，今年影響鋼鐵生產(chǎn)與物流成本的因素，如礦石、焦炭、燃油、物流、環(huán)保支出、工資等價格費(fèi)用都比上年程度不同提高。據(jù)蘭格鋼鐵網(wǎng)市場監(jiān)測 數(shù)據(jù)，2019年3月26日，普氏鐵礦石指數(shù)為84.8點(diǎn)，同比上漲34%。高盛亦將今年3個月鐵礦石價格預(yù)期由70美元/噸上調(diào)至80美元/噸，6個月 價格預(yù)期由60美元/噸上調(diào)至70美元/噸。2019年中國方管生產(chǎn)與物流成本有增無減，對于方管行情的影響是不言而喻的。
Second, production costs have increased. In terms of market monitoring, this year's factors affecting the cost of steel production and logistics, such as ore, coke, fuel, logistics, environmental protection expenditure, wages and other price costs, have increased to varying degrees compared with the previous year. According to market monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Network, on March 26, 2019, the Prussian iron ore index was 84.8 points, up 34% year on year. Goldman Sachs also raised its iron ore price forecast from $70 per ton to $80 per ton in three months and from $60 per ton to $70 per ton in six months. In 2019, the cost of production and logistics of China's Square Management has increased unabated, and the impact on Square Management's market is self-evident.

當(dāng)然，年內(nèi)方管行情也具有壓制因素：
Of course, there are repressive factors in the management of the market during the year.

首先是鋼鐵產(chǎn)量的超預(yù)期釋放。本 來由于基礎(chǔ)萎縮(去產(chǎn)能)及對比基數(shù)的提高，蘭格鋼鐵陳克新預(yù)計2019年中國粗鋼產(chǎn)量增速應(yīng)有明顯回落，但實(shí)際情況卻是截然相反，今年前2月全國粗鋼產(chǎn) 量同比增長9.2%，比去年同期增速又提升了3.3個百分點(diǎn)，方管產(chǎn)量增速則提升了6.1個百分點(diǎn)。對于今年內(nèi)中國粗鋼產(chǎn)量到底會達(dá)到多大的數(shù)量規(guī)模？確 實(shí)難以把握。
The first is the unexpected release of steel production. Chen Kexin of Langer Iron and Steel expected that the growth rate of China's crude steel output in 2019 should be significantly reduced due to the shrinkage of the base (capacity removal) and the improvement of the comparative base, but the actual situation is the opposite. In the first two months of this year, the national crude steel output increased by 9.2% year-on-year, and increased by 3.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year, while the square pipe production increased by 6.1 percentage points. How large will China's crude steel output reach this year? It's really hard to grasp.

按 照目前粗鋼產(chǎn)量增勢推算，即便今年內(nèi)中國粗鋼產(chǎn)量增速顯著回落，由今年前2個月的9.2%的同比增速回落至全年4%，按照2018年全國粗鋼產(chǎn)量9.28 億噸計算，2019年全國粗鋼統(tǒng)計產(chǎn)量也將達(dá)到9.65億噸。如果粗鋼產(chǎn)量提速，增幅達(dá)到8%，2019年中國粗鋼統(tǒng)計產(chǎn)量將躍上10億噸關(guān)口，達(dá)到 10.02億噸。
According to the current growth trend of crude steel production, even if the growth rate of crude steel production in China dropped significantly this year, the same growth rate of 9.2% in the first two months of this year dropped to 4% in the whole year. According to the national crude steel output of 928 million tons in 2018, the national crude steel output will reach 965 million tons in 2019. If crude steel output is increased by 8%, China's crude steel output will jump to 1 billion tons in 2019, reaching 1.02 billion tons.

總之，今年中國粗鋼產(chǎn)量存在多種可能性，而無論是哪一種產(chǎn)量規(guī)模，都會對于今年中國方管市場行情形成重大壓力。
In short, there are many possibilities for China's crude steel production this year. Whatever the scale of production, it will exert great pressure on China's market performance this year.

其次是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景不容樂觀。今 年3月22日，美國國債收益率出現(xiàn)倒掛。這往往是美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將進(jìn)入衰退的前兆。根據(jù)歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)，美國國債倒掛——美聯(lián)儲停止加息——約半年后降息——美國經(jīng)濟(jì) 陷入衰退。美國作為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主要發(fā)動機(jī)，其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的大幅放緩，勢必使得全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長蒙上一層陰影，進(jìn)而掣肘方管市場的揚(yáng)升行情。
Second, the global economic outlook is not optimistic. On March 22, the yield on US Treasury bonds went upside down. This is often a precursor to a recession in the U.S. economy. According to historical experience, the U.S. economy is in recession when the U.S. Treasury bond hangs upside down, the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates and cuts interest rates about half a year later. As the main engine of world economic growth, the dramatic slowdown of economic growth in the United States is bound to cast a shadow on the global economic growth, and thus hinder the market's ascension.

由此可見，今年中國方管價格行情難以單邊持續(xù)向上，只能是在寬幅震蕩中艱難揚(yáng)升。
This shows that this year, it is difficult for China to unilaterally continue to rise in the price market, but only in a wide range of shocks difficult to rise.

方管